Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 15th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada dsaly, Avalanche Canada

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Be aware that if triggered, avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in large, destructive avalanches. Use extra caution at treeline where weak layers are more prominent and be prepared to back off quickly if you find signs of instability like whumpfing and shooting cracks.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche reports continued Wednesday. Skiers triggered several size 1-2 slab avalanches in the Selkirks, including a couple of size 1.5 avalanches remotely triggered in treeline openings around 1900-2000 m.

On Tuesday in the northern Monashees, a vehicle remote-triggered a size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche on the mid-November layer. Explosives control produced several size 3 and a size 3.5 persistent slab avalanches.

MIN reports from Monday outside the RMR area boundary document 2 large avalanches triggered by skiers, reported crown depths were 80 cm (Montana1, Montana2).

Several natural storm slab avalanches were reported, up to size 2, every day this week. Several natural persistent slab avalanches, up to size 3, were also reported. These larger avalanches may have been triggered small, solar-triggered avalanches in the afternoon stepping down to deeper instabilities.

Saturday

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths are highly variable and range from 90 cm at treeline to 200 cm in the alpine in wind-affected locations.

Surface: 5-8 mm surface hoar has formed in sheltered areas on the surface of the snowpack. A sun crust is found on steep solar slopes above 2000 m. Northerly winds are creating wind slabs in lees and cross-loading features at higher elevations.

Upper-pack: 40-50 cm settling snow overlies a weak layer of 5 mm surface hoar in sheltered and shaded terrain and a sun crust on sunny south-facing slopes.

Mid-pack: Buried 60-90 cm deep, is a persistent weak layer of surface hoar, crust, and faceted crystals. This layer has been most reactive at treeline between 1700-2200 m, but it was also observed as low as 1450 m and on all aspects.

Lower-pack: Below the mid-November layer is a generally weak, faceted snowpack.

Weather Summary

Thursday night

Mostly cloudy and increasing winds. Northwest ridge winds 10-25 km/h. Overnight alpine low temperature -16 C. Freezing levels valley bottom.

Friday

Clear skies with cloud cover increasing later in the day, and possible isolated flurries. Northwesterly ridge winds 10-25 km/h. Alpine high temperature -8 C.

Saturday

Cloudy skies and isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Northwest ridge winds 20 km/h.  Alpine high temperature -10 C.

Sunday

Cloudy skies. Light flurries, up to 5 cm. Northwest ridge winds up to 20 km/h.  Alpine high temperature -16 C.

Sunday

 

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

There are now two persistent weak layers within the snowpack.

A 30 - 50 cm soft slab sits above a weak layer of 5 mm surface hoar on shaded aspects and crust on steep solar aspects. As northerly winds build wind slabs, adding additional load to the weak layer, we may see another avalanche cycle on this layer.

A second weak layer of surface hoar and facets from mid-November is buried 60 to 90cm in the region. This layer continues to catch professionals and recreationists off guard with numerous large human-triggered avalanches.

Read our featured blog to learn more about how to manage a persistent slab problem when traveling in the backcountry.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Dec 16th, 2022 4:00PM