Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Jan 15 – 16, 2014Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Forecast very warm temperatures are a concern. Are we going to have a spring warm-up in January? Stay tuned for more information as we approach the weekend.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Very strong winds have created hard wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline. These hard wind slabs may be more than a metre thick.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Cornices may become weak and fall off naturally due to strong solar radiation and forecast warm alpine temperatures. Cornice falls are a large load that may release buried persistent weak layers on slopes below, resulting in very large avalanches.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–6
    Recent storm snow and hard wind slabs have been added to the load above buried weak layers. Deeply buried weak layers may become harder to trigger, but the consequences are very large destructive avalanches.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Thursday: Strong Northwest winds aloft diminishing overnight to moderate by late morning. Freezing levels rising during the day to about 2300 metres. Sunny periods with a chance of high clouds.Friday: Alpine temperatures should drop below freezing overnight if skies remain clear. Freezing level rising to about 2700 metres during the day. Light to moderate Northwest winds.Saturday: Continued warm air at alpine elevations. Light winds and mostly clear skies.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Suspect extreme Westerly winds and warm temperatures have developed hard wind slabs. Areas with snow available for transport may have continued to experience natural wind slab avalanches. Forecast warm temperatures, limited precipitation, and continued very strong winds are expected to develop hard wind slabs and decrease natural avalanche activity. Avalanches that are triggered are expected to be large due to the amount of recent storm snow. Large storm snow avalanches may step down to buried persistent weak layers resulting in very large destructive avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Expect extensive wind transport and wind slab development in all areas of the region. Recent storm snow varies from 40-70 cm across the region and I suspect that in some alpine areas storm snow has been transported into slabs that are more than a metre thick. Persistent weak layers of buried crusts/facets/surface hoar continue to be a concern, and may have been the failure plane for recent large natural avalanches. Forecast very warm temperatures may result in loose wet avalanches or cornice falls that may trigger the persistent weak layers or the basal depth hoar. Strong solar radiation combined with above freezing temperatures in the alpine could create very touchy triggering on Southerly aspects.

Regions covered