Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Dec 24 – 25, 2018Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 8 years ago

Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Over 100cm of snow has fallen in the Ice Fields region since Dec 11. This is the time to be on high alert when traveling in any avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5
    Moderate to strong  south west winds have created firm windslabs  in the alpine and exposed treeline slopes.
  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3.5
    This layer now sits under a meter of snow, any terrain that has not had previous activity on this layer should be given a wide berth.
  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1.5–4
    Several recent large avalanches have been the result of the entire snowpack failing on or near the ground due to the weak snowpack structure surrounding this interface.

Weather Forecast

Little change expected in over the holidays, forecasted winds will tamper Sunday night as a SW flow will settle in for the next few days. Temperatures will remain cool with daytime alpine highs of -10°c. A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong south west winds continue to load lee slopes at tree line and above. The Dec. 11th persistent weak layer has been buried 50 to 100cm and is ripe for human triggering. The deep persistent weakness lingers near the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche control produced consistent size 2 to 2.5 avalanches running to roadside. Previous to the control work, a large natural avalanche cycle occurred primarily failing on the Dec 11 weak layer. Most notably is a large, possibly cornice triggered size 3.5, which ran nearly full run-out, on the Churchill (north and south) slide paths.

Confidence

Regions covered