Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Feb 26 – 27, 2016Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Danger has the potential to increase with intense sun and warm temperatures at all elevations especially on solar aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Wind slabs are bonding well, however caution is still warranted in immediate lees and cross loaded terrain above treeline.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Persistent weak layers of decomposed surface hoar, facets, and depth hoar are in many locations. These layers have been stubborn to trigger underfoot but could trigger with a cornice failure or from shallow spot.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Loose wet avalanches, especially in the later afternoon with warm sunny skies, are possible on south and westerly aspects. Probability increases with sun.

Weather Forecast

Friday freezing level will rise to 2000m by mid-afternoon with sunny skies. Expect -11 overnight to +3 during the day and much warmer in the sun. A weak temperature inversion may form Friday. Light westerly will dominate the next few days and potentially 2-5 cm of new snow Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 20cms of soft surface snow in sheltered locations at TL over a supportive mid-pack. This is sitting on a weak basil facet layer. The HS BTL is more inconsistent in depth and support. Solar aspects have a thin sun crust down 20cms and producing moderate to hard resistant compression test results. Sun is creating surface crusts.

Avalanche Summary

No field trip Thursday. Tuesday observed two new avalanches above the Maligne road which appeared to be solar triggered. Some cornice failures also noted in Icefields area which triggered the basal weakness.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday

Regions covered