Avalanche forecast

Salt River and Wyoming Ranges

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Widespread weak layers above 7500’ are still lingering where it is possible to trigger a large avalanche 2-4 feet deep. Although the likelihood of triggering is slowly decreasing, the consequences remain the same. The best way to manage this problem is assess the snowpack and terrain very thoroughly or stay off consequential slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Above 7500’ hard slabs 2-3 feet deep lie above weak layers formed in December, with 4 foot slabs possible in wind loaded terrain. These weak layers are widespread. Stability tests in snowpits are still showing unstable results and poor structure exists. The honest truth is this problem is getting more stubborn to trigger, and more difficult to predict. Areas of the most concern will be where a thin/shallow snowpack exists and on very steep (over 35°), unsupported slopes near rock features. 

    Below 7500 slabs are 1-2 feet deep and will be stubborn to triggering an avalanche due recent warming and freezing cycles.

    (1/31/2024)

    Hard slab avalanche on SW aspect at 9400' near Sheep Creek Peak

    Photo: Alex Drinkard

Avalanche Discussion

In avalanche forecasting we only have 5 danger ratings to explain the very complex dynamics of avalanches. Therefore within each danger rating, there’s a large range of avalanche conditions. The avalanche rating of moderate today is a low probability, high consequences scenario. This is different from a high probability, lower consequence scenario such as storm or wind slabs. Persistent weak layers are hard to deal with in the backcountry. The recent warming/freezing cycle certainly helped, but those layers are thick and have not completely gone away. The best way to mitigate this problem is to assess the snowpack and terrain very thoroughly where you are riding or stay off consequential slopes. Today we’ll see cooler temperatures and cloudy skies. Pay attention the next few days with the incoming storm as these weak layers are stressed by new snow. In addition, watch for any new snow instability especially with strong winds forecasted. New snow will fall on an array of different surfaces including widespread crusts on southerly aspects and isolated surface hoar in sheltered terrain. 

Check back daily as we enter an active weather pattern this week and increased avalanche danger.

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