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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 31st, 2022–Apr 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Expect firm conditions in the morning, softening with sun and warm temperatures throughout the day.

Wet avalanches become more likely on south facing slopes as the surface crust breaks down, and snow becomes wet and heavy. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Scattered cloud, light to moderate westerly winds. Isolated flurries. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom. 

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light southwest winds. Freezing levels 1800-2000 m. Alpine highs of +3. 

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with light to moderate southwesterly winds. Light snowfall, around 5-10 cm over the day. Freezing levels reach 1700 m. Alpine highs of +1. 

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with moderate to strong southwest winds. Flurries possible with freezing levels reaching 1800 m. Alpine high of +2. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday. 

On Tuesday, natural wet avalanches were reported on steep sun affected slopes to size 1. Wet avalanche activity is expected to decrease with cooler temperatures this week. 

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is going through a daily melt-freeze cycle. A crust exists on all aspects to around 2500 m and likely to mountain top on sun affected slopes. Warm temperatures and sun are softening or breaking down the crust during the day and creating moist snow. At very low elevations, the snowpack may be wet and isothermal, depending on overnight freezing levels. 

The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.