Avalanche forecast

Arthur's Pass

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
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Highlights

A warm sunny day on Friday will increase loose wet avalanche hazard, particularly on slopes facing the sun.

Avoid punchy rain-sodden snow on steep and unsupported slopes.

Revise travel plans to reflect the level of hazard. Allow the snowpack time to regain strength.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    A rain-sodden snowpack in most parts ot the Park is weak and needs time to regain strength. Daytime warming will increase the loose wet avalanche risk, especially on sun-facing slopes. Factor this into your travel plans.

    Remember that natural loose wet avalanches threaten slopes below and be aware of what's above you. Cross gullies and avalanche paths carefully one at a time.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A widespread loose wet avalanche cycle has been observed over the last few days, particularly in areas close to the divide.

Park user observations provide important information.

If you see anything, please report it in the public observations section of the NZAA website.

Current Snowpack Conditions

The snowpack received a large amount of precipitation (45mm+ in the north-west of the Park) mostly in the form of rain below ~2200m over the last two days. It had received a previous drenching below ~1700m a few days earlier. It is likely that below 1700-1800m rain channels have developed to exit this water from the snowpack quite quickly. Above that, the snowpack may take longer to drain and regain structure and stability. Further south in the range on Thursday 13th August the snowpack at 2100m was isothermic with foot penetration from knee to mid thigh. Rain effects and precipitation totals will taper to the east. There are wind stripped surfaces at higher elevations on most aspects. The threshold for avalanches is estimated at around 1500m in the west, tapering east.

Mountain Weather

Forecast for Friday 14 August

Morning cloud about the terrain, otherwise fine.

Wind at 1000 metres

Light.

Wind at 2000 metres

Light.

Freezing level

2100 metres.

Sliding Danger

Expect areas to be stripped back to hard surfaces from the gale winds at higher elevations. Crampons and an ice axe are a good idea, as many firmer areas now exist.

Forecast Confidence

High

  • We are uncertain about forecast rain amounts.
  • We are uncertain due to variable freezing levels.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered