Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Flurries, 10 cm / southwest wind, 50-70 km/h / alpine low temperature near -9

FRIDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / southwest wind, 40-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1200 m

SATURDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / southeast wind, 10-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 800 m

SUNDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / southeast wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -8

Natural avalanche activity is expected to taper off somewhat, though natural avalanches are still possible. Human triggered avalanches remain likely.

Heavy snowfall likely resulted in a cycle of natural avalanches on Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving storm slabs very reactive to human triggering. Observations were limited on Tuesday and Wednesday due to poor visibility.

A continuous wave of storms has delivered anywhere from 30-60 cm of snow to the Cariboos over the past few days. 50-90 cm of recent snow now sits above a widespread layer of large, feathery surface hoar crystals. New snow is expected to continue to accumulate and consolidate above this layer over the next few days, maintaining a high likelihood of human-triggered avalanches.

A weak layer formed in late November is now buried around 1 m or more below the surface. This is the layer of concern relating to the persistent slab avalanche problem. The weak layer may present as surface hoar, a crust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect. Below this, a variety of crusts from late October are buried deeper in the snowpack.