Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 9th, 2018 4:00PM

The alpine rating is low, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Warm temps, broken skies, irregular strong solar effect! Feels very spring-like. This is a transitional time for the snowpack continue to treat the terrain cautiously. Plan for the dawn patrol, enjoy the sun and get back early for happy hour!

Summary

Weather Forecast

Spring like warming trend with a distinct south westerly flow. Freezing levels rising to treeline elevations into the weekend. Trace, to upwards of 10cm of snow overnight Friday won't stick around long with daytime solar and warming for Saturday. Freezing level to 1700m, light west winds and, Alpine temps; High of -6.

Snowpack Summary

Facetting has weakened the snowpack in isolated areas through the forecast region. Melt freeze, spring-like cycle beginning in ernest BTL. Variable, moist surface snow on steep, rocky solar aspects. Less so on BTL, ski-able, solar slopes where broken cloud and cooling winds are keeping the surface dry. Wind effect in open areas in the ALP and TL.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive assisted, solar induced, loose dry avalanches to sz 1.5 in BTL south and south-west aspects entraining the facets and running fast on Wednesday.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Persistent Slabs

A cold, facetting, and structurally weak slab up to 80cm thick overlies faceted crystals (well developed in shallow areas). Low elevations will present as a loose dry avalanche problem.

Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche.If triggered dry loose point releases can form deeper deposits in terrain traps.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Late afternoon problem in steep, solar rocky terrain. Found to be entraining the surrounding, facetted snowpack and will build up volume quickly.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Avoid ice climbs exposed to steep rocky terrain on solar aspects during the middle of the day.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 10th, 2018 4:00PM