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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 22nd, 2013–Feb 23rd, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

If we get more snow than is forecast, the danger rating will increase. Assess wind-loading patterns carefully.

Weather Forecast

Friday evening may bring 10-20cm (10mm water equivalency), possibly more with local influences but precipitation amounts are uncertain. There is more confidence in severe SW alpine winds with brisk winds at treeline. Front expected to dissipate Saturday a.m.. Saturday to Monday will have  flurries and seasonal temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

Variable windslabs exist in the alpine and treeline locations. They are bonding well. Expect a short lived storm snow instablity to form with the current system. Weak facets dominate low elevations. Solid midpack bridges basal facets treeline and alpine.

Avalanche Summary

No Patrol Friday. Thursday's Marmot Basin Portal creek patrol revealed no new avalanches. No Patrol on Wednesday.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Saturday's 20cm of snow has evolved into a variable windslab and appears to be bonding well. It sits on a variety of surfaces such as previously hard slab and sastrugi.
Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

With the potential of this new snow load and winds Friday evening, expect increase in activity until has had few days to stabilize. 
The new snow will requires several days to settle and stabilize.Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3