Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 17th, 2017 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

max darrah, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Conditions are changing in the alpine. Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Precipitation to continue through the week, with amounts up to 25cm over the next 72hours. Temps cooling gradually and freezing levels sinking down to 1000m by Friday. Winds will be moderate to strong from the Southwest.

Snowpack Summary

Moist HST to 2500m ranging from 10-20cm, with heavier amounts to the South. Multiple surface and buried wind slabs overlying a variety of faceted weaknesses to ground. Extensive scouring and wind affect in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

Only small loose slides observed out of steep rocky terrain at treeline and lower elevations. Poor visibility in the alpine today.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecasted snow amounts expected to be 10 to 30cms over the next 48 hours. New slabs expected to be touchy in lee terrain, particularly on North Easterly terrain at upper elevations.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Concern for new snow overloading the season's weak faceted basal layers.

If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Jan 18th, 2017 4:00PM