Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 29th, 2017 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Wind and new snow continue to load an already stressed snowpack

Summary

Weather Forecast

Forecasted snow (10 to 15cm) to continue through the evening Sunday. SW winds with strong to extreme ridge top values, tapering off and shifting to northerly though Monday/Tuesday. Increasing pressure, blue skies and arctic temps by mid-week.

Snowpack Summary

New snow being re-distributed by moderate to strong SW winds, loading N to NE aspects on an already stressed facet interface down between 20 to 50cm. Hard windslab over a weak mid-pack, over an even weaker facet and depth hoar base to ground.

Avalanche Summary

Active avalanche cycle through the forecast region. Loading continuing though the night Sunday. Significant activity directly observed from Alpine and TL elevations between (2200m - 2500m) Saturday. No new observations Sunday due to poor visibility.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Big open features and climbs with significant overhead hazard should be avoided as the weak bond between layers strengthens.

Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Loose Dry

Wind loading and shedding from steep faces, especially concerning for ice climbers.

Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 30th, 2017 4:00PM