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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 5th, 2015–Dec 6th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Surface hoar layer not readily found on east treeline aspects on today's field trip.  Forecasters are still nervous about this elusive weakness so continued cautious decision making is advised.

Weather Forecast

Continued snow as a series of storms roll over the area.  Expecting up to 40 cm accumulated by Tuesday night. Mod to strong SW winds with warm valley bottom temps cooling with elevation.

Snowpack Summary

25 cm new (and more on the way) over a well settled snowpack at treeline and below. In the alpine and TL, strong SW winds redistributing the new snow on the lee aspects. The distribution of the surface hoar that formed during last week's inversion is widespread but is most likely best preserved on sheltered north aspect slopes.

Avalanche Summary

No new activity observed.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

25 cm of snow so far with a total of 40 cm expected by Tuesday night.  Mod to strong SW winds building slabs on top of a well developed surface hoar layer. Sheltered northerly aspects are likely areas where this surface hoar is most prevalent.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed touchy slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2