Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday

Overnight and Friday: The temperature inversion should end overnight with freezing levels dropping down to valley bottoms. Cloudy overnight with flurries or light snow ending in the morning. Winds becoming Northwest during the day as skies clear and temperatures drop.Saturday: Cloudy with light snow and Southwest winds as a weak Low pressure system collides with the arctic air along the coast. Expect alpine temperatures to be around -15 with moderate Southwest winds.Sunday: Cloudy and cold with light snow and moderate Southwest winds.

Natural loose wet and slab avalanches were reported from several areas of the region from size 2.0-2.5. Most of the activity was reported to be starting from steep South facing terrain during periods of strong solar radiation. Natural dry slab avalanche activity was reported up to size 2.5 from shaded aspects North of the region in the Central coast mountains. While natural activity has subsided on Northerly aspects in the region, human triggering with the possibility of long fracture propagations continues to be a concern.

Strong solar radiation and warm air trapped in the alpine have developed a melt-freeze crust on Southerly aspects and caused a great deal of settlement in the old storm slab above the early February weak layer. The February weak layer of crusts and facets has been reported to be rounding and bonding in areas where the old storm slab is 150 cm or deeper. Shallow snow pack areas where the old storm slab is closer to a metre or less continue to give sudden planar shears in snow profile tests. North aspects in the alpine may have had enough warming to settle the storm snow into a cohesive slab, but not enough to improve the weak layer bond. Big un-supported alpine North aspects are the most likely place to find a well preserved deeply buried February weak layer that may continue to allow for long propagations resulting in very large avalanches.