Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Overnight and Friday: Winter continues in the mountains. Light snow overnight (5-8 cm) above 1200 metres combined with moderate Southerly winds. Mostly cloudy with light Easterly winds during the day as freezing levels climb to 1700 metres.Saturday: Good crust recovery is expected overnight as the freezing level drops down to 1100 metres. Light Southerly winds becoming moderate in the afternoon. Chance of flurries during the day.Sunday: Freezing levels dropping to 1000 metres overnight and rising to 1500 metres during the day. Expect 3-5 cm of snow during the day combined with moderate Southwest winds.

The new snow has been reported to be easily triggered by ski-cutting up to size 1.5 where it is sitting on a melt-freeze crust.

A highly variable spring snowpack exists across the region and conditions can change rapidly throughout the day. At lower elevations below-treeline, the snowpack is isothermal and melting rapidly. At mid elevations, between roughly 1500 and 2000m (and higher on sunny slopes), the snowpack is undergoing daily melt-freeze cycles. In the mornings, a refrozen surface generally means good stability. In the afternoon when the surface melts, the stability can deteriorate quickly, especially on sunny slopes. The recent storm has produced dry snow in the alpine resulting in the formation of storm slabs and wind slabs which sit on an old crust. The stability of these slabs has generally been improving but on the first really sunny day, stability is expected to deteriorate rapidly and natural avalanche activity is likely, especially on sunny slopes. Large cornices remain a concern and are expected to become reactive during periods of solar warming. The early-Feb facet/crust layer (down ~2m) and a weak basal layer are both dormant but remain a concern during periods of intense warming, especially in thinner snowpack areas, when large spring avalanches may step down to these layers.