Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Record warming on Monday should cool slightly on Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure begins to break down. Expect high overcast skies with periods of sunshine on Tuesday combined with moderate Southwest winds and freezing levels slowly descending from 3000 metres to around 2500 metres. High overcast is forecast for Wednesday with light winds and freezing levels around 1600 metres. The freezing levels should drop down to valley bottoms by Thursday morning. Expect valley cloud and a high overcast layer during the day on Thursday.

Moist or wet loose snow avalanches have been reported from several areas up to size 2.0 over the past few days during the warming event. On Saturday a skier triggered a size 2 persistent slab which failed on the mid-December layer. This was a surprising result because it was on a well-supported, concave terrain feature (which had also been heavily skied).

10-40 cm rapidly settling recent snow overlies various surfaces including surface hoar, a thin crust, or a settled slab. Warm temperatures are affecting the surface layers and turning them moist or wet. Warming may also change the persistent slab properties such that triggering is more likely. The mid-Jan surface hoar layer is down about 20-60 cm. These large, well-preserved surface hoar crystals sit on a thin crust up to about 1900m on north aspects and all the way to ridgeline on south aspects. A deeper crust/surface hoar combo buried in mid-December is typically down 80-120cm and has produced some large avalanches recently. With the unusually warm temperatures and known weak layers in the snowpack, it's a good time to do some investigative digging and venture gently.