Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Overnight Tuesday: 10-15 cm new snow expected with freezing levels around 1400 m and strong to extreme westerly ridge top winds. Wednesday: a cold front moving through will bring only light snowfall, say 2-4 cm. Temperatures will drop in the afternoon, with freezing levels lowering to around 1000 m. Very windy--expect ridge top winds up to 100 km/h. Thursday: lingering flurries, winds diminishing to moderate northwesterly, and freezing level lowering to around 600 m.

A remote-triggered avalanche, where the slide was initiated from 20 m away from the skier, was triggered near Kootenay Pass. This avalanche ran on a north aspect at treeline and had a fracture depth of 40-60 cm. On Sunday, two remote-triggered avalanches were reported near Nelson on the lee side of wind rolls. The weak layer was surface hoar over a crust that was buried around 30 cm. Several other size 1.5 avalanches have been reported from the region running on the early February weak layer. Avalanches have been reported as propagating unusually far.

Depending on location, 30-60 cm new snow now sits on top of a highly reactive persistent weak layer (PWL), comprising large surface hoar in sheltered areas and a sun crust on solar aspects. A thin This PWL is now right at the critical depth where triggering is very likely and resulting avalanches could easily be large enough to bury, injure or kill a person. Professionals throughout the region are treating this layer with extreme caution, since it is showing signs of remote triggering and the ability to propagate in low angled terrain. Alpine winds have been strong enough to blow snow around, adding a touchy wind slab problem into the mix behind exposed terrain features in the alpine. In shallow snowpack areas concerns remain for the mid-December persistent weakness down around 80-100cm and for basal facets. Treeline snowpack depths are approximately 230 cm.