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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2013–Jan 17th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud is expected for the forecast period. Extreme northwest winds are expected to ease to strong on Friday, and then become light on Saturday. The possibility of an inversion will exist throughout the period; however, alpine temperatures should stay below freezing.

Avalanche Summary

No new significant avalanche observations have been reported from the region.

Snowpack Summary

Light amounts of loose snow may overlie windslabs which exist in unusual locations due to strong northwesterly winds. Below this around 60cm of settled snow rests on a myriad of old surfaces that were buried on January 4th. These surfaces include a sun crust on steep solar aspects, surface hoar in sheltered locations at treeline and below, and facets everywhere else. The bond at this interface seems to have strengthened somewhat with time. The overlying slab has also settled significantly.The midpack is reportedly well settled and strong with one or two (location specific) crusts deep in the snowpack. These crust/facets combos are largely dormant, with the only concern being triggering from a shallow snowpack area or with a heavy trigger.Cornices in the region are reported to be large and potentially unstable.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong northwest winds are expected to form new windslabs. Watch for loading in unusual locations. Cornices are also large and potentially unstable.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Slopes that didn't slide in the last avalanche cycle are of particular concern. Watch for triggering on unsupported terrain.
Conditions are greatly improved, but be mindful that persistent instabilities are still present.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5