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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 1st, 2013–Mar 2nd, 2013
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Saturday: As the strong Pacific front starts to push northward, precipitation will ease off to light amounts during the day and moderate amounts developing in the evening. Strong ridgetop winds becoming moderate from the West and freezing levels rising to 2200 m falling to valley bottom overnight.Sunday: Light-moderate precipitation accompanied by moderate ridgetop winds from the NW. Alpine temperatures near -8 and freezing levels at valley bottom.Monday: No significant precipitation expected with ridgetop winds blowing light form the SW. Alpine temperatures near -5, and freezing levels hovering around 1400 m in the afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday reports indicate a size 2 skier triggered avalanche off of a windloaded ridgeline feature running on a layer of facetted crystals. A subsequent size 1 avalanche was triggered nearby. This was in the Three Sisters area just north of Fernie.On Friday loose wet avalanches occurred up to size 1.5 from steep terrain features below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

About 30cm of storm snow has fallen with generally lower amounts in the North Elk and Crowsnest areas. The new snow has been shifted onto lee slopes by strong west and southwest winds creating wind slabs. With additional forecast snow and strong winds, storm slabs, cornices and wind slabs will continue to build.Mid and lower snowpack layers are generally well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will continue to build through the weekend. Recent strong winds have created slabs in the lee of terrain features and are likely triggered by the weight of a person.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Cornices

Cornice fall may act as a trigger for slabs on slopes below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

Continued precipitation and rising freezing levels may cause loose wet avalanche activity from steeper terrain features. Pin-wheeling and moist snow surfaces are the initial indicators.
Watch for wet loose or slab activity with forecast rain and/or warm temperatures, especially where terrain traps exist below.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3