Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The pacific frontal system produced significant moisture Saturday night and into Sunday over the south of the region. There is a chance of moderate precipitation overnight Sunday into Monday in the extreme south corner of the South Rockies. The exact track of the storm is tough to pin down so there could be significant amounts of precipitation or nothing at all. Less eventful weather for Monday and Tuesday with slightly lower freezing levels is expected.Sun Ovn: 70% chance of snow or rain, moderate accumulations possible (Flathead and Elk Valley South) if the storm makes it above the 49th parallel. Light to moderate wind out of the West. Freezing levels 1300-1600mMonday: Trace possible. Light to moderate winds from the west, freezing levels around 1400-1600m.Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny periods, light west winds with moderate gusts. Freezing levels 1400-1600m.

There was a report that the Morrisey slidepaths near Fernie  ran to nearly full path on Sunday.  Also on Sunday, near neighbors in the Lizard Range report storm slabs and loose wet avalanches to size 2.5.There is concern for an ongoing natural and human triggered avalanche cycle on Monday with more snow in the south, and solar radiation hitting the slopes where we get some blue skies. Cornices have gotten large and tender and may trigger slabs if they fail.Avalanches in the region have the potential to run full path as dryer storm slabs from the alpine entrain moist snow as the descend. Avalanches in clearcuts, road banks, lower angle terrain and non obvious avalanche paths continue to surprise backcountry enthusiasts throughout the region, so consider them carefully in your travel plans through the forecast period.

Various storm slabs continue to build on top of the March 2nd weak layer made up of facets, surface hoar or crusts, depending on your elevation and aspect. There is now 70-100cm of snow on this layer in the bigger snow zones in the south of our region (Flathead and around Fernie).The mid pack contains the February 10th persistent weak layer. In the deeper snowpack areas it could be up to 2 meters deep now, but in the shallower snowpack zones, it is likely about a meter deep. It is becoming a more isolated problem and likely only trigger-able by large loads like cornices or storm slabs in motion in areas that have not previously run on the February 10th layer... and those areas are getting harder to find.In the lower elevations (below 1600m) in the south of the region, expect the snowpack to be rain soaked and loosing cohesion. Below treeline terrain is likely close to isothermal in the high rain affected zones, and at least moist everywhere else.