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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2017–Jan 7th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Be cautious in areas with thin snowpacks, especially shallow rocky spots. A fresh round of windslabs may be lurking near ridge crests.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

We've had a bit of a shift from the very cold conditions, and temperatures have warmed by 5 - 10 degrees Celcius. Only some isolated flurries are possible until late Sunday, when a small amount (5-10 cms) of light dry snow is forecast.SATURDAY: Sunny breaks with increasing clouds overnight. Flurries overnight with little accumulation. Winds light southerly. Alpine highs to -13 Celcius.SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Winds light southerly. Alpine temperatures between -15 and -20 Celcius; 5-10 cms light dry snow overnight.MONDAY: An additional 5-10 cms light dry snow are possible during the day and overnight. Winds light - moderate southwesterly. Alpine temperatures steady near -14 to -18 Celcius.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed.

Snowpack Summary

Another round of moderate northerly winds has moved through the Crowsnest pass and northern areas in the past 24 hours, causing fresh wind slabs on south and west aspects. In some areas these wind slabs may be sitting on an old scoured surface that was stripped by previous strong westerly winds that developed wind slabs on north and east aspects. The newer wind slabs are probably easier to trigger, but the old wind slabs may continue to release with the added load of a rider, especially where they are sitting on a shallow weak sugary base. The mid snowpack is generally right side up, with the mid-December interface down 40-80cms, giving inconsistent results in snowpack tests. There is some faceting below this interface but resistances are good and showing signs of rounding (stabilizing). Travel conditions have been challenging (especially at lower elevations) and little change is expected until a significant warm up helps to settle the snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent strong winds have been from several directions, creating wind slabs and reverse loading. Expect these wind slabs to continue to be easy to trigger, and may take longer than usual to settle and bond due to the cold temperatures
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow, there is the potential to trigger large, dangerous avalanches. Dig down and test for weak layers before committing to any steep slope.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Danger spots are where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow below.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3