Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Jasper.
Recent natural activity resulting from cornice failures initiating hard wind slab below ridges.
Cold temps will continue to weaken these unpredictable features and raise the likelihood of initiating large avalanches from lingering deep instabilities.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.
Alpine temp: -20 °C.
Wind N: 10 km/h.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries.
Alpine temp: Low -29 °C, High -21 °C.
Wind W: 10 km/h.
Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries.
Alpine Temp: Low -28 °C, High -21 °C.
Wind NW: 10 km/h.
Snowpack Summary
Recent HS redistributed with mod to strong SW winds. Wind slab developed continues on exposed terrain features at treeline and above. The mid-pack is supportive with an exception of a weakening crust interface down 30-40 cm (up to 1950m). Cold temperatures promoting top down facetting through-out the region.
Avalanche Summary
Recent road patrol confirms, it's miserably cold out there!
Two of the most concerning recent observations is the mass of loose dry snow clinging to steep terrain, especially concerning for ice climbers. Watch carefully for any significant overhead features (benches or catchments) still holding recent storm snow and, capped or corniced ridges.
Confidence
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Up to 35cm of new snow with moderate to strong winds creating wind slabs on lee and cross loaded features. A rain crust 30cm down is a suspect weak layer in BTL.
- Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.
- Watch for stiffer feeling snow. Avoid areas that appear wind loaded.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Dry
Extra vigilance is warranted in steep terrain, ice climbs, and gully terrain traps where small avalanches can build into significant volumes.
- Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.
- Be careful of loose dry power sluffing in steep, confined or exposed terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
This problem, although stubborn, persists in isolated alpine terrain and may initiate with a large trigger or rapid loading. Use extra caution in thin areas were humans are most likely to trigger this high consequence layer.
- Use caution in thin snowpack areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3