Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 15th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

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Cautious route-finding will be important at upper elevations as fresh storm slabs are likely to trigger.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Scattered flurries bring another 5 cm of snow, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures cool to -6 C with freezing level lowering to 1000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy skies, no precipitation, light wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with flurries easing off in the morning bringing up to 5 cm of new snow, moderate wind from the southwest, freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

We have preliminary reports of large (size 2) storm slabs avalanches triggered by explosives on Tuesday. We suspect a natural cycle of storm slab avalanches also occurred on Tuesday, with slabs likely remaining reactive to human triggering on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Upper elevations will likely have 20 to 40 cm of fresh storm snow. Most below treeline elevations will have moist and crusty surfaces, as freezing levels during the storm were between 1500 and 1800 m. The upper snowpack is becoming a complex mix of crusts from sun, warming, and rain over the past few weeks. There has been some evidence of isolated weak facets or surface hoar around these crusts (roughly 30 to 60 cm deep), but at this point triggering avalanches on these layers is not likely.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.
  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

With 20 to 40 cm of new snow, storm slabs will remain reactive at upper elevations on Wednesday. Human triggered avalanches will be likely on steep and wind-loaded slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Mar 16th, 2022 4:00PM