Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.
During periods of high hazard, avoid all avalanche terrain.
Snow, wind, and rain will rapidly destabilize the snowpack.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Looking ahead, we expect a large natural avalanche cycle to occur with snowfall and strong winds, followed by rain.
On Thursday, explosive-controlled wind slab avalanches up to size 2 occurred in steep, north-facing terrain. Some stepped down to the early March crust, up to 1.5 meters deep.
Snowpack Summary
20 to 30 cm of recent snow will then be saturated by 15 to 30 mm of rain up to 2000 m throughout Monday. At upper elevations, snow is accompanied by strong southwest winds, so we anticipate deeper deposits on north and east-facing slopes in the alpine. This sits over 60 to 90 cm of recent storm snow.
A robust crust, formed in early March, can be found in the mid-pack. The snow above is well bonded to this crust.
Below this, the snowpack is well consolidated and strong.
Weather Summary
Sunday Night
Cloudy with 10 to 20 mm, falling as snow above 1750 m. 60 km/h south ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature 2 °C.
Monday
Cloudy with 15 to 30 mm, falling as snow above 2000 m, with greatest amounts in the southwest. 60 km/h south ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature 3 °C.
Tuesday
Cloudy with up to 10 mm, falling as snow above 2500 m. 50 km/h south ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature 5 °C.
Sunday
Cloudy with up to 5 mm, falling as snow above 2500 m. 50 km/h south ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature 6 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
- Cornice failures could trigger large and destructive avalanches.
- Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain with no overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm snow and strong southwest winds will form touchy storm slabs. Expect to find deeper and more reactive deposits on north and east aspects at upper elevations, where the wind will load lee slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Loose Wet
Rain up to 2000 m will rapidly destabilize the snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2