Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Lizard-Flathead.
Warm temperatures overnight may prevent a good re-freeze. Check for 'crust recovery' and be off slopes before they turn mushy or wet.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear with incoming cloud cover, Increasing 15-30 km/h west wind, alpine low temperature 0 C. Poor overnight re-freeze expected with freezing level hovering above 2300 m.
MONDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks, southwest wind gusting to 60 km/h, alpine high temperature +6 C, freezing level spiking above 2500 m.
TUESDAY: Wet flurries, 5-15 cm. West wind gusting to 40 km/h, alpine high temperature +6 C. Poor overnight re-freeze expected but freezing level dropping below 1600 by the evening.
WEDNESDAY: Scattered flurries, 5-15 cm. West wind gusting to 60 km/h, alpine high temperature +6 C, daytime freezing level rising above 1900 m.
Avalanche Summary
A few loose wet avalanches occurred Friday from steep south-facing alpine slopes.
On Thursday, one report noted a rider-triggered avalanche in a steep, north-facing chute. The slab was 20 cm thick and reportedly ran a long distance. Otherwise a few small wet loose avalanches were observed.
Please consider posting your observations to the Mountain Information Network to supplement our data stream and help fellow recreationists.
Snowpack Summary
The snowpack has transitioned to spring-time conditions, with overnight crusts transitioning to moist snow during the day, and isolated and lingering winter-ish conditions at the highest shaded elevations. Overall the snowpack is strong, consisting of hard snow and various melt-freeze crusts. At ridge top, remember that cornices are large and looming.
With warm springtime temperatures, check for good overnight recovery - avoid slopes that do not get an overnight re-freeze.
Terrain and Travel
- Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Warm air and the sun can pack a punch, causing loose wet avalanches that may entrain recent snow and travel far. Keep in mind that any snowpack can quickly loose strength when heat penetrates to deeper layers. Check for good overnight recovery - avoid slopes that do not get an overnight re-freeze.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices are large and fragile. The likelihood of them failing increases with each day of warm temperatures. Any release could be catastrophic.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3