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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 16th, 2022–Apr 17th, 2022
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Large cornices are hard to pinpoint when travelling on a ridgetop and can be easily triggered by the weight of a person; so stay well back. Looking at approaching big lines? Make sure to read this new blog.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

A surface low tracking across Montana will spill lightly over the region tonight. By Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will build over, bringing a drier day. Warmer and closer to seasonal temperatures are expected early next week.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Light snow (2-4 cm) / easterly wind 20-40 km/h / treeline low around -12C / freezing level rising at valley bottom.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / light to moderate west wind / treeline high around -2 C / freezing level rising to 1500 m and back at valley bottom at night. 

MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness / increasing southwesterly wind to 40 km/h / treeline around +2 C / freezing level rising to 1800 m and remaining elevated at night.

TUESDAY: Snow at high elevation 10-15 cm / moderate southwesterly wind gusting 50 km / treeeline high around +4 C / freezing level at 1800 m.  

Avalanche Summary

Observations are limited this time of year. No new avalanches were observed in the last few days. 

If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider contributing to the Mountain Information Network by sharing snow / riding conditions. 

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of snow sits over a widespread melt-freeze crust formed on April 8. Periods of strong wind from the northeast through southeast earlier this week have redistributed the snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming wind slabs or hard wind pressed surfaces. Cornices have likely grown large recently, but are expected to be relatively stable with the current temperatures. A sun crust has also been formed on steep sun-exposed slopes. 

Multiple crusts exist in the upper snowpack, which are currently considered stable and well bonded with the ongoing cold conditions. The middle and lower snowpack are currently well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Cornices often break further back than expected; give them a wide berth when traveling on ridgetops.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Recently, cornices have grown large. With the current and forecasted conditions, they are generally not expected to fail naturally. However, human-triggered cornices are possible, so give them a wide berth when travelling on ridges. Watch for signs that cornices may be weakening if they are exposed to extended periods of sun. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3