Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2016 9:16AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Conditions vary greatly across the region, but touchy conditions have been reported in many areas. Conservative terrain selection is becoming critical. Check out the latest Forecaster Blog at avalanche.ca/blogs or click here.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

On Sunday expect light flurries and moderate southwest ridgetop winds. On Sunday night the winds will become strong with 5-8 cm of new snow expected overnight. Light flurries and a mix of sun and cloud are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.Freezing levels should remain at valley bottom for the forecast period. For a more detailed weather overview, check out our Mountain Weather Forecast at avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle up to size 2 from various aspects was reported on Friday from west of Valemount. We had a report from Valemount on Thursday that in most areas the recent storm snow was mostly unconsolidated, and not reacting as a slab yet. In some areas the storm snow has been pressed into a slab by the winds and is very easy to trigger where it is sitting on a widespread layer of surface hoar. Expect soft storm slabs to continue to be triggered by human activity. We also had a report on Thursday from the Wells Grey area of a skier remotely triggering a size 2 avalanche that was 35 cm deep from 20 metres away. This avalanche was 80 metres wide and released on buried surface hoar in the alpine. This group also reported numerous whumpfs during the day. These reports suggest that there is some variability across the region. I suspect that the south and west of the region may have more storm snow, and the storm snow may have settled into a more cohesive slab in those areas.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow total is now 15-40 cm. In exposed terrain, winds may have shifted these accumulations into deeper wind slabs. Below the new snow you'll find a mix of weak surfaces which formed in early January. These include widespread surface hoar, facets, and possible sun crusts on steep southerly aspects. I would anticipate reactivity on these weak layers in areas where the overlying slab has gained cohesion through wind pressing, warming, and/or settlement. In general, the mid and lower snowpack are strong with any weak layers considered dormant for now. Snowpack depths are variable and shallow snowpack areas may have weak facetted crystals near the ground.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent storm accumulations overlie a weak layer of surface hoar. Expect very touchy conditions in areas where the the new snow has settled into a cohesive slab.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2016 2:00PM