Give the new storm snow time to settle and strengthen before tackling big objectives.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday
Weather Forecast
Up to 10cm of new snow and moderate to strong southwest winds are forecast Saturday night. For the rest of the forecast period expect to see a mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries and generally light ridgetop winds. The freezing level is expected to hover between 1000m and 1200m. The next storm is forecast to hit the region on Wednesday night.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday there was evidence of widespread natural storm slab avalanche activity to size 3.5. The avalanches failed in response to heavy storm loading on Friday and possibly warming on Saturday. I'm sure there was also another round of smaller storm slab avalanche activity on Sunday, although at the time of publishing observations were extremely limited.
Snowpack Summary
On Sunday 10-20cm of snow fell adding to the impressive amounts that had already fallen on Friday (up to 50cm in 24 hours). Storm totals from the past week were well over 100cm. Strong southwesterly winds have shifted the new snow into deeper storm slabs on lee and cross-loaded alpine and treeline features. On all but higher elevation shaded slopes the new snow from Sunday likely overlies a melt-freeze crust from high freezing levels and sun on Saturday afternoon. Ongoing stormy weather has also encouraged extensive cornice growth. Weaknesses below the recent storm snow are expected to have gained considerable strength while the mid and lower snowpack are also strong and well-settled.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.