Loose Wet
- All elevations
- Likelihood
- Very Likely
- Size
- 2
Heavy rain tomorrow will keep the loose wet hazard elevated again tomorrow.
Keep out of runout zones, including tramping terrain and valley floors.
Avalanche forecast
View on mapArthur's Pass
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
Avalanche danger
- High Alpine · above 1,800 m
- 4 · High
- Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
- 4 · High
- Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
- 2 · Moderate
Highlights
High avalanche hazard. Avoid backcountry travel; large avalanches are expected to run to the valley floor.
Keep out of runout zones, including tramping terrain and valley floors.
Avalanche problems
Storm Slabs
- All elevations
- Likelihood
- Likely
- Size
- 2
Heavy snow is forecast tomorrow when the freezing level drops. Expect large drifts and increasing storm slab hazard during the day.
Wet Slabs
- All elevations
- Likelihood
- Likely
- Size
- 2
With new snow from the last few days and now rain at higher elevations, Wet slab avalanches are possible with heavy rain forecast again tomorrow.
Recent Avalanche Activity
A natural avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred during the storm.
Park user observations provide important information. Please help us.
If you see anything, please report it in the public observations section of the NZAA website.
Current Snowpack Conditions
Up to 350mm of precipitation has fallen in western areas of the Park since Friday night, accompanied by fluctuating freezing levels. Most areas below ~2100m will have received a snow-rain-snow combination, followed by snow falling to ~1000m on Sunday afternoon. Snow totals remain to be determined once the storm concludes but the threshold for avalanches in western areas of the Park close to the divide is probably around 1500m, tapering to the east. A series of rain on snow events over the past weeks mean rain percolation channels will be well established in the snowpack below ~1800m and new channels will be forming to the highest elevations during this storm's heavy rain precipitation. Strong to gale winds from the northerly half will have formed windslabs on south facing slopes and around terrain features. The underlying snowpack was well consolidated prior to the storm and once drained is unlikely to hold deeper layers of concern for avalanche hazard.
Mountain Weather
Rain with heavy falls, easing in the evening. Snow to 500 metres, lifting to 1600 metres in the afternoon. Winds Northerly 40 km/h developing before dawn, rising to gale 75 km/h late morning, and to severe gale 120 km/h late afternoon. Freezing level 1500 metres, lowering to 1200 metres before dawn, then lifting to 2000 metres in the afternoon.
Forecast models are not matching, with high uncertainty in rain totals and freezing levels.
Sliding Danger
Conditions are changing. Low sliding hazard at present.
Forecast Confidence
Moderate
- We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.
- We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.
- We are uncertain due to rapidly changing freezing levels.
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)