Loose Wet
- All elevations
- Likelihood
- Possible
- Size
- 1.5
With loose snow remaining in start zones and warming temperatures forecast for the afternoon loose wet avalanches may occur on steeper solar aspects.
Avalanche forecast
View on mapAspiring
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
Avalanche danger
- High Alpine · above 2,000 m
- 2 · Moderate
- Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
- 2 · Moderate
- Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
- 1 · Low
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Highlights
Warming temperatures this afternoon may produce further wet avalanche activity. Storm slabs formed from Friday and Saturday evening's snowfalls may be reactive around some isolated features. With increasing north quarter winds this afternoon and plenty of loose snow available for transport a reactive wind slab may develop.
Extra care should be taken where the runouts of even a small event are likely to be poor. Identify and avoid areas of concern.
Avalanche problems
Storm Slabs
- All elevations
- Likelihood
- Possible
- Size
- 1.5
Above around 1700m 20-40cm of new snow has fallen since Friday. Pockets of storm slab possibly remain on south aspects.
Although not expected to be large in size, extra care should be taken around steep features particularly where the runouts of even a small slide may have poor consequences.
Wind Slabs
- All elevations
- Likelihood
- Possible
- Size
- 1.5
With increasing wind from the north quarter forecast to develop this afternoon a wind slab problem may develop - there is a lot of loose dry snow available for wind transport. Be aware that this slab may become reactive on steeper and concave slopes prone to wind loading.
Recent Avalanche Activity
Widespread size 1-2 natural wet avalanches were observed yesterday on steeper solar aspects as the day warmed. A small slab was triggered by a climber on a steep south facing slope at 2100m - a reminder that specific terrain features can produce small avalanches.
If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.
Current Snowpack Conditions
Approximately 10cm of new snow fell above 1700m on Friday and a further 10-30 cm on Saturday. This snow has generally well bonded to the old snow surface falling with little wind. Sufficient quantities of loose snow remains on solar aspects to fail as wet avalanches.
Before this, on 1st - 4th of August, very strong winds from the west and south have significantly stripped any exposed faces and features; other downwind areas in the lee have been left with variable surface conditions and multiple layers of very dense hard slab ranging from 10-60cm thick. This slab now appears very stubborn and unreactive. Large cornices have also formed above 1800m.
The snowpack remains relatively shallow for the time of year. Approximately 60- 70 cm below 1700m and 120cm at 2000m. Crevasses are still very open, and many rock features are still visible, particularly on west-facing aspects.
Although the lower part of the snowpack also appears consolidated and unreactive, the Aspiring region is very large, and there is still limited data. Caution should still be taken, particularly in steeper, more extreme terrain where unknown weaknesses may exist.
Mountain Weather
Mainly fine, some cloud about the tops. The odd shower developing at night.
Wind at 1000 metres: Northeasterly 40 km/h, rising to gale 65 km/h early evening.
Wind at 2000 metres: Northerly 30 km/h, rising to 55 km/h in the morning, and to gale 75 km/h in the afternoon.
Wind at 3000 metres: Northeasterly 45 km/h developing in the morning, rising to gale 70 km/h early evening.
Freezing level: 1800 metres, lowering to 1500 metres in the evening.
Sliding Danger
Exposed areas such as ridgelines on west and south aspects may have been stripped back to old ice layers by recent strong winds. Depending on your objective, an ice axe and crampons could be necessary.
Forecast Confidence
High
- The snowpack structure is well understood.
- We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)