Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 14 – 15, 2021
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Archived · expired 6 years ago

Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Warm temperatures and high solar input are expected to taper off with incoming cloudy weather. Watch closely for any temperature spikes during the day as freezing levels are uncertain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Originally formed on weak Feb 20th facets. It is prudent to keep this on your radar with warmer temperatures as reactivity may increase. Cornices will have the potential to fail and trigger slabs below.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Even with clouds in the forecast, green house effect and higher freezing levels have the potential to  warm up the snowpack enough for the wet loose to be an issue. Best time to travel is early while its frozen solid.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Mainly cloudy. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: High -3 °C. Ridge wind southwest: 15-35 km/h. Freezing level: 1900 metres.Monday: Cloudy with sunny periods.  Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: Low -7 °C, High -2 °C. Ridge wind west: 10-25 km/h. Freezing level: 1900 metres.

Snowpack Summary

High solar input in the last few days created crusts and moist snow on solar aspects at TL and below. Wind scoured ALP features lost most of its snow to the lees of the mountains.  The mid pack is supportive in deep areas but weak in shallow spots where it fails on buried facet layers in test results.

Avalanche Summary

No patrol on Saturday.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Regions covered