Mostly a storm and wind slab problem, but as the upper snowpack settles, things might start to change. If you see signs of instability, like whumpfs (rapid settlements), or see small rolls peel off, avoid unsupported (convex) terrain features.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable
Weather Forecast
Thursday: 5-10 cm new snow is expected. Ridgetop winds southwesterly 60-70 km/h in the morning, diminishing to westerly 40 km/h by the afternoon. Treeline temperatures around -3C. Friday: Light snow in isolated areas, no significant accumulation expected. Winds becoming light northwesterly. Treeline temperatures around -7C. Saturday: Dry and sunny. Light northeasterly winds. Treeline temperatures around -13C.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche activity was reported on Tuesday. I suspect a natural avalanche cycle occurred, however; the stormy conditions may have prevented people from getting out, or even being able to see alpine areas and/ or start zones. Forecast ridgetop winds are 60-90 km/hr and steady though Wednesday which will likely initiate another natural avalanche cycle.
Snowpack Summary
50-70 cm of new storm snow sits above a plethora of old snow surfaces including stiff wind affected snow, faceted (sugary) crystals and surface hoar crystals that formed in locations sheltered from the wind. The new storm snow was expected to bond poorly to these old surfaces; however, less avalanche activity than expected has been noted on this layer, indicating the bond may not be quite as poor as expected. The upper snowpack is still soft - as this becomes stiffer and denser, we may start to see more slab avalanche activity on this layer. The mid-November crust is now buried down 70-150 cm and produces variable results in snowpack tests.
jfloyer,
Avalanche Canada
