Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 16th, 2014 9:01AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.

mbender, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Avalanche danger can rise very quickly with warming and solar radiation. Be aware of changing conditions and overhead hazards.For more insight into spring danger ratings, check out our Blog Post.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Light to locally moderate precipitation. Winds moderate west. Freezing level 1800m.Friday: Overcast with flurries. Moderate northwest winds. Freezing level 1500m.Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light west wind. Freezing level 2200m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports from the past few days indicate numerous natural avalanches running to size 2.5 on southerly aspects in the alpine. A size 3 natural cornice triggered avalanche was also reported from a east aspect in the alpine on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow and/or a crust exist on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation north-facing terrain. A melt-freeze crust buried at the beginning of April can be found 40-50cm below the snow surface. This layer has been variably reactive in snowpack tests. Three persistent weak layers exist in the highly variable snowpack of the South Columbia region:-The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm and the early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm seem to be dormant at this time.-The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 150 - 200cm. Direct triggering of this layer has become unlikely, however, cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming may wake this layer up, which would result in very large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Loose Wet

Expect to see an increase in avalanche activity with forecast rain at lower elevations or on solar aspects if the sun comes out for extended periods of time.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Although unlikely to trigger, the potential for very large deep slab avalanches should remain on your radar. Cornice fall, strong solar, warming temperatures or a surface avalanche in motion could act as a trigger.

Be aware of the potential for very large, deep and destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried persistent weak layers.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

4 - 8

Valid until: Apr 17th, 2014 2:00PM