Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2016–Feb 13th, 2016

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Avalanche conditions could vary dramatically between aspects and elevations Decision making may be more tricky than the Moderate danger rating implies.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy with continued light snowfall bringing another 1-3cm of accumulation. Freezing levels around 1300m and winds are expected to be light from the southwest. SUNDAY: Another 5-10cm possible overnight before continued light snowfall brings1-3cm of accumulation throughout the day. Freezing levels rising throughout the day to as high as 1500m and winds are expected to be moderate from the southwest. MONDAY: Light snow with moderate to strong westerly winds and freeing levels around 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive controlled cornices on Thursday produced one 50cm thick Size 2 slab avalanche, and one 150cm thick Size 3 avalanche on northeast facing alpine slopes.

Snowpack Summary

A supportive crust (in most places aside from shaded aspects at treeline elevations) and perhaps new surface hoar (where it survived the heat, rain and sun) could be buried by as much as 10-15cm of fresh snow or deeper wind slabs. Avalanche professionals are still monitoring three buried surface hoar layers in the upper 150 cm, with recent reports of hard, but still sudden snowpack test results down around 120cm and 140-170cm.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Touchy fresh pockets of wind-deposited snow are lurking on the downwind side of ridgecrests and terrain features. Expect them to get bigger and touchier throughout the weekend.

Use ridges or ribs to avoid wind loaded terrain.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

A deeply buried weak layer remains sensitive to human triggering, which can result very large avalanches. Persistent weakness in the overlying slab creates the potential for deeper step-down slab releases.

Be cautious around steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved. >Avoid thin, rocky or sparsely-treed slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6