Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Saturday: Moderate to heavy snow (~15-35cm). Freezing level gradually rising to around 1500m. Strong westerly winds.Sunday: Continuing precipitation (~15-35mm). Strong westerly winds. Freezing level around 1500m.Monday: A cold front brings moderate to heavy precipitation with the freezing level dropping to valley bottom overnight as the front departs.

Avalanche activity has slowed down over the last few days, with only sporadic reports of avalanches. However, these occurrences illustrate the unpredictable nature of persistent weak layers. On Friday, a skier triggered a size 2.5 slab very easily and very close to recent ski tracks, which failed on buried surface hoar. On Thursday, a cornice fall triggered a size 2 slab on a north aspect, which failed on the Feb 16. weakness. On Wednesday, numerous size 2-3 avalanches ran naturally, or with a remote trigger, on a variety of slopes. Most failed on an upper snowpack persistent weak layer. Natural avalanche activity is likely to increase again with this weekend's incoming weather.

Snow is falling with strengthening winds and rising temperatures onto variable surfaces including surface hoar and facets. This is creating a nice recipe for new storm slab and wind slab instabilities. Persistent weak layers buried in February are a key concern at all elevations and could be triggered by storm slabs, wind slabs or sluffs, or with a light additional load (like you). Avalanches may be unexpectedly large, given the amount of fresh snow. Large cornices also loom as potential triggers for deep avalanches.