Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

An unsettled, winter-like weather pattern will continue through the forecast period. A weaker storm will make way to the Interior tonight and freezing levels will drop significantly in the wake of the cold front. As the front sweeps through, light-moderate precipitation will fall and ridgetop winds will be moderate from the west. On Saturday and Sunday, accumulated precipitation 5-25 mm with ridgetop winds blowing strong from the west and freezing levels steady around 2000 m. The general weather pattern is expected to bring multiple systems but the confidence in the exact timing, track, and strength of each system is poor.

In the Cariboo region no new avalanches were reported on Thursday, however; in the North Columbia Mountains south of the Cariboo's, warm, wet and windy weather was responsible for a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3. With similar weather conditions, I'd hedge my bets that this was also the story in the Cariboo's. I suspect natural avalanche activity will likely continue with warm temperatures, strong winds and periods of sun and rain. Avalanches failing on the persistent interface will be large and destructive.

A rain soaked upper snowpack exists to 2000 m. Above that elevation, new, dense storm snow (25 cm) has added load over the mid-March interface 40-60 cm down. This interface is comprised of a series of crusts, wind affected surfaces, and old wind slabs Digging deeper is the mid- February persistent weak interface which is now down 80-120 cm and continues to be very reactive, producing very large and destructive avalanches. In exposed terrain, strong SW winds had redistributed the new snow into wind slabs on leeward features.