Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Scattered flurries overnight with light northwest winds and freezing levels down to valley bottoms. On Tuesday, light northwest winds with light precipitation and freezing levels up to 1700 metres during the day. Some chance of periods of broken skies. On Wednesday, expect 3-5 cm of new snow with moderate southwest winds and a good overnight freeze. Cloudy with freezing levels rising to 1500 metres during the day. On Thursday, continued cloudy with moderate-strong westerly winds and 5-10 cm of new snow.

On Sunday we had reports of numerous storm slab avalanches size 1.5 from various aspects, with a couple reaching size 2.0 on north aspects. On Saturday a wind event triggered a size 3 avalanche that started near 2300 m, failing on a steep un-skiable east facing piece of terrain. Over the last week we have received 5 reports of very large (size 3) avalanches on north, east and south aspects between 1700 and 2400 m. Some have failed after being hit with a large chunk of falling cornice, others have released without a large trigger.

Large cornices loom over many ridge lines and many are teetering on the brink of failure. Old wind slabs may remain a problem on high elevation north facing features. The make up of the late February persistent weak layer is an aspect dependant mix of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust down around 70 to 100 cm below the snow surface. Large triggers like natural cornice fall and explosive control work continue to initiate avalanches failing on this interface. The recent warm to cool temperatures should give the overlying slab a bit of strength, but it has yet to prove itself trustworthy. Unfortunately there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. As a precautionary measure, we recommend remaining suspicious of steep unsupported features at and above treeline.