Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2013–Jan 1st, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

On Wednesday the next warm front moves onto the coast and should reach the Cariboos by Wednesday night. Most of the precipitation is expected for Thursday with lingering flurries on Friday. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, light snow flurries during day increasing into the evening, treeline temperatures around -5C, light SW windsThursday: Snowfall 10-15cm, freezing levels around 1200m, light to moderate SW-W windsFriday: Mostly cloudy, light flurries 2-5cm, treeline temperatures around -10C, light NW winds

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 40 cm of new snow has fallen since Saturday. Winds have been generally moderate to strong from the SW-NW and temperatures have fluctuated. Expect to find touchy wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at and above treeline, and buried rain crusts below 1600 m. A couple buried weak layers (surface hoar or facets) are now down 80-100 cm deep. Snowpack depths vary, but in general 150 cm of snow can be found at treeline, with 100-200 cm in the alpine. In many places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack (thanks to a windy early season) so there's not a whole lot of snow between riders and the sugary snow (facets) near the ground. The basal facet/crust combo has been recently active in parts of the region and continues to give easy to moderate results in snowpack tests.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs and wind slabs continue to build and may release naturally with more load or from the weight of a rider. Watch for touchy wind slabs on exposed north through southeast facing slopes and cross-loaded features in the alpine and treeline.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Several persistent weaknesses exist in the upper and mid-snowpack and could be triggered by the weight of a skier or rider or from continued loading from snow and wind.

Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequence.>Whumpfing is direct evidence of a buried instability, if observed back off to lower angle terrain. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Deep Persistent Slabs

A weakness near the base of the snowpack could be triggered by continued loading or by riders in thin snowpack areas. Smaller avalanches have the potential to step down to this layer which would greatly increasing the consequences on an avalanche.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Avoid rock outcroppings, steep convexities and anywhere the snowpack feels thinner than average.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6