Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Recent storm snow is likely to still be reactive, particularly in wind-affected terrain and on slopes that face the sun. Watch out for reverse-loading in exposed terrain.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear and cold. A wind event is expected overnight blowing strong northerly winds.
SATURDAY: Clear in the morning becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Mostly light winds switching from northwesterly in the morning to southwesterly in the afternoon. Freezing level around 700 m.
SUNDAY: Flurries. Moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1200 m.
MONDAY: 20-30 cm new snow. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday a couple of size 2 natural wind slab avalanches were noticed near Whistler in steep, northwesterly alpine terrain. A couple of human-triggered avalanches were also observed, one on north-facing terrain in the alpine and one on east-facing terrain below treeline. All these avalanches appear to have involved only the recent storm snow.
Snowpack Summary
Storm slabs formed by 20 cm of new snow and extreme east/southeast winds have formed touchy storm slabs that are expected to remain reactive to human triggers, especially in wind- and sun-affected terrain.
The new snow buried a variety of snow surfaces including wind pressed snow in the alpine, sun crusts on solar aspects, and a spotty layer surface hoar in some sheltered treeline areas.
Another weak layer buried in mid-February is composed of a crust, facets or spotty surface hoar depending on elevation/aspect, and is now down 50-80 cm. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer. Large triggers, such as an avalanche in motion, cornice fall, or intense loading from snow, wind and/or a rapid rise in temperature could awaken these deeper weak layers.
The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong in most areas.
Terrain and Travel
- Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Extra caution is needed around cornices under the current conditions.
- Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Strong northerly winds are poised to set up a reverse-loading situation in exposed terrain for Saturday. Sunshine during the day could activate wind-loaded slopes.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Cornices
Cornices are large, looming, and require extra caution under the current conditions.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5