Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 16th, 2024 1:45PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Loose Wet, Persistent Slabs and Cornices.
Dvonk,
Avalanche Canada
The warm up continues. A natural avalanche cycle is underway with evidence of wide spread loose wet avalanches and slabs in steep terrain. The possibility of large deep avalanches going full path is likely. This will be more reactive as the day and sun heat things up. A good time to stay away from avalanche terrain and enjoy the weather otherwise.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
A road patrol along the spray today noted a wide spread loose wet avalanche cycle to size 1.5 on all solar facing terrain to mountain top. A couple new slabs were noted on steep East facing terrain below cliffs, Likely cornice triggered.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temperatures are settling the upper snowpack and creating moist snow up to 2200m on all aspects and likely over 3000m on solar aspects. This new snow is settling and in some places overloading the weak layers triggering natural avalanches that are either failing on the ground or on the February crust down 70-100cm. Polar aspects in the alpine may still hold dry snow but windslabs should be expected if you are headed into this area. With our generally weak snowpack and the big pulse of heat that is coming this weekend, its a good time to avoid avalanche terrain in general. Extensive settlements were heard on Friday while travelling in any open areas indicating the snowpack is highly susceptible to human triggering. Avalanches have the potential to go full path reach all the way down to the valley floors. Cornices are large and looming over many features at this time of year and with the heat, they may act as a big trigger on underlying slopes.
GHOST FORECAST AREA
The Ghost area has more snow than usual. With this warming trend, pay close attention of what is above you. Wet loose avalanches and cornice failures are possible in this forecast region. Ice climbers should choose routes appropriately.
Weather Summary
Freezing levels will remain elevated for the next couple days @ 2800m. Sunday will have cloudy with sunny periods and 20km West winds at ridge top. Overnight temperatures will not dip below 0°. So a snowpack recovery will be very limited to non existent.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
- Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Problems
Loose Wet
This problem will become more reactive with solar input and no overnight recovery's.
Aspects: South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
This layer is breaking down at the upper limits. At 2250m it is much weaker than last week.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Watch for cornices collapsing with the incoming heat triggering avalanche on the underlying slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 17th, 2024 3:00PM
