Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 6th, 2016 8:54AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

jsmith, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

Daytime warming may increase sensitivity of stubborn wind slabs.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

No significant snow or wind in the forecast. The big news is BIG warm up on Monday/Tuesday with a strong temperature inversion and freezing levels rising sharply. There is major disagreement in the models as to exactly when and how high they will go but will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2000-3000m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches within this region were observed on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

5cm of new snow overnight with moderate to strong winds in variable directions have created fresh 20-30cm wind slabs in areas you might not normally expect to find them such as aspects that are generally windward and well below ridge tops. Large cornices have been reported in areas you would expect to find large cornices. In some ares there is a freezing rain crust below the most recent storm snow. A persistent weak layer of buried surface hoar can be found 70-100cm down depending on elevation. A weak crust/facet layer from early December still exists deep in the snowpack but has been unreactive.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Daytime warming may increase sensitivity of stubborn wind slabs.

Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow. >Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

We are in a classic low probability but high consequence period. Collapsing cornices or a small avalanche in motion could step down to a buried weak layer.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 5

Valid until: Feb 7th, 2016 2:00PM