Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Models disagree on precipitation in the next few days.  There is a frontal system forecast to hit the coast and slide south, but it appears most of the snow will be on the coast itself and Vancouver Island, with some of it affecting the south coast inland.Friday night: Freezing level at valley bottom, no precipitation in the forecast.  Cooler arctic air begins to affect the region, ridge top winds up to 30Km/h.Saturday: Freezing level at valley bottom, flurries and a possible 5-10cm in the forecast, ridge top winds from the north @ 25 Km/h.Sunday: Freezing level at valley bottom, flurries and a trace of precipitation in the forecast, light ridge top winds from the north.Monday: Freezing level at valley bottom, flurries and a possible 5cm in the forecast, light ridge top winds from the north.

With all the new snow we've been getting, we're seeing reports of natural, skier triggered, and explosive control avalanches up to size 2 throughout the forecast region. Most are storm slab avalanches and occurred around tree line and above. These appear to be running on the Feb. 10th facet/crust/surface hoar combination.

Snowfall amounts in the past week are more than 1metre and combined with previous snowfall, the storm slab thickness is 60-100cm. The storm slab is overlying a variety of old weak surfaces that developed during the past cold, dry spell. It consists of weak facets, surface hoar, a scoured crust, wind pressed snow, or any combination of these. A poor bond exists between the storm slab and these old surfaces. Much of the recent storm snow has been redistributed into wind slabs on lee slopesOf particular concern is the combination of buried facets on a crust that has been reactive at tree line and below. Avalanche activity, whumpfing and snowpack tests at these elevations are showing easy sudden planar shear results on the facet/crust combo. Strong to extreme winds are redistributing the new snow into deeper, and denser wind slabs on lee slopes increasing the possibility that an avalanche on these layers could be quite large and very destructive.The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled. Basal facets and depth hoar are likely to exist in some parts of the region, but skier triggering has become unlikely.