Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
Avalanche danger will increase during periods of strong solar radiation.
Head out with a conservative mindset and dial back your terrain choices until the weather cools.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partially cloudy. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 2500 m.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 2000 m.
THURSDAY: Partially cloudy with light precipitations. Light variable winds. Freezing level around 1500 m.
FRIDAY: Partially cloudy with light precipitation. Light southwest winds. Freezing level around 1600 m.
Avalanche Summary
At the time of publishing, avalanche activity in the past week has been limited to small wind slabs and wet loose avalanches (size 1).
Snowpack Summary
5-10 cm of recent snowfall has been redistributed by strong westerly winds, building windslab in lee areas. The surface is moist and crusty below 1800 m on all aspects and on solar aspects into the alpine. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.
Terrain and Travel
- The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating.
- Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
If the sun comes out on Wednesday, warm temperatures compounded by strong solar radiation may weaken the upper snowpack, creating wet loose avalanches out of steep terrain.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Cornices
Cornices have grown significantly in the past two weeks. Warm temperatures may make cause cornices to become weak. Cornice failures are dangerous on their own, but also have the potential to trigger larger avalanches on the slopes below.
Give them a wide berth when travelling on ridge-lines and minimize overhead exposure to large cornices.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Wind Slabs
Recent snowfall and westerly winds are expected to have formed wind slabs in lee features in the alpine.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2