Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Synopsis: A strong Westerly offshore flow pattern is becoming established which is allowing a series of systems to come through for the remainder of the week. Tonight and Monday: A first frontal system approaches later Monday spreading light precipitation to the region. 5-10 cm of snow amount are forecasted with winds increasing to strong from the SW. Freezing levels are forecasted remain at the surface.Tuesday: Another, stronger system moves across the region spreading moderate amounts of precipitation with strong SW winds. Freezing levels are forecasted to rise to 1000 m briefly. Precipitation amounts are forecasted to be from 15 to 20 cm.Wednesday: Another system is forecasted to come through, expect moderate to heavy precipitation with similar freezing levels.

There has been a report of a skier triggered slab avalanche size 1 on an E facing slope and of loose snow avalanches size 1 on S and N aspects. Expect more and bigger avalanches this week with the incoming weather.

Snow should start falling tomorrow during the day, slowly adding load to the snowpack. Avalanche conditions will aggravate during this bulletin period with the moderate to heavy forecasted load (possible total of 30 mm in water equivalent) and strong SW winds. The new snow will fall on a variety of weak layers such as surface facets, on a new surface hoar layer in sheltered areas, on a crust on solar aspects or on hard windslabs in the alpine. The bond of the new snow with these surfaces is expected to be poor. 10-30 cm below exist another surface hoar or suncrust layer that has been reactive to skier traffic even since it has been buried in late January. Keep in mind that the storm snow could remain unstable for a period longer than usual because of the persistent underlying surfaces. The mid snowpack is strong and supportive. Deeper persistent layers have been dormant, however, they could wake up again with the large load forecasted.