A strong Southwest flow is expected to bring strong winds and rapidly rising freezing levels. Expect avalanche danger to increase as the storm develops.
Summary
Confidence
Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Increasing cloud is forecast for this evening, with light precipitation starting in the early morning. Southwest winds are expected to build to moderate from the Southwest during the day on Monday. The winds should increase to strong from the Southwest on Tuesday combined with 5- 10 mm of precipitation that will probably be rain up to about 2000 metres elevation. The warm, wet, and windy weather is expected to continue on Wednesday as freezing levels spike up to about 2200 metres elevation.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches reported from this region. The new storm slab is the immediate concern for easy human triggering. Avoid freshly wind loaded features at higher elevations. The more complex problem is the lingering persistent weak layer of buried hard rain crusts with weak facets or surface hoar at the interface. Rising freezing levels during the forecast storm combined with the chance of heavy loading from rain or wet snow may be enough to weaken the bond at the crust.
Snowpack Summary
The developing storm slab is variable across the region. In the Monashee range near Big and Little White we have reports of a 25 cm storm slab that has been transported by the wind at higher elevations and it is sitting on a weak layer of facets or surface hoar. This storm slab is giving easy results from light forces in snow profile tests. The new storm slab is reported to be thinner near Nelson where it is sitting on a thin re-frozen rain crust. In the Kootenay Pass area the new storm slab is about 20 cm and may be sitting on surface hoar, and then another layer of about 20 cm (40 cm total) above the hard November 29th crust. The November 20th crust may be anywhere from about 40 cms above the ground in deeper snowpack areas to on the ground or non-existent in shallower snowpack areas. The November 20th crust continues to give moderate planar results in snow profile tests in some areas; that means the right combination of load and terrain features may result in an avalanche down to this buried layer.
triley,
Avalanche Canada
