Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Sunny and warm until our next weather system arrives late Wednesday. MONDAY: Sunny. Light southeast winds. Freezing level rising to 2500 metres with alpine high temperatures around 0 to +1.TUESDAY: Mainly sunny. Light southeast winds, increasing over the day. Freezing level to 2500 metres with alpine high temperatures of +2.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries in the afternoon. Light south winds. Freezing level near 2000 metres with alpine high temperatures of +1.

Reports from Saturday included wet loose avalanches to size 1.5. These occurred in steeper terrain on sunny aspects. On Friday, numerous recent wind slab releases were also observed to have run naturally up to size 2.5 on steeper north aspects.Thursday's reports included one observation of an older size 2.5 natural wind slab release in the south of the region. This avalanche occurred on a 40 degree southwest slope in the alpine and had a depth of 60 cm.Avalanche activity is expected to increase as we move into a period of intense sun and prolonged warming. Predictable wet loose avalanches from steep, sunny terrain should be easy to manage. A trickier problem will gradually emerge as warmth penetrates into the snowpack to tickle deeper persistent weak layers that have been dormant for awhile now in the Cariboos. The next few days will be a time to avoid exposure to large sunny features and keep well away from corniced slopes.

Thursday's storm brought 20-30 cm of new snow by Friday morning. This new snow overlies well-settled storm snow from regular snowfalls over the past couple of weeks. Although several layers of sun crust can be found within this older storm snow on solar aspects, recent snowpack tests have not been producing concerning results in the upper snowpack. Persistent weak layers from early January and mid-December are still being reported by local operators. They are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with forecast warming, a surface avalanche stepping down, a cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets.