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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 28th, 2021–Jan 29th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast Inland.

Triggering avalanches remains possible in wind loaded areas and in steep terrain where sluffing may occur.

Small avalanches can have big consequences if they are triggered above features like cliffs or terrain traps.

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy / light southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -9 

FRIDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, 5-10 cm possible in the overnight period / light to moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -8 

SATURDAY - Flurries, 5 cm, with another 5-10 cm overnight / moderate to strong south wind / alpine high temperature near -6 

SUNDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm, with another 5-10 cm overnight / strong south wind / alpine high temperature near -5 

Avalanche Summary

It may be possible to trigger small pockets of wind slab at higher elevations. Steep terrain features with no slab may sluff when ridden.

On Tuesday there were a few reports of explosives triggered size 1.5-2 avalanches.

There were a few reports of natural and human triggered dry loose avalanches on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm of recent fresh snow sits on firm wind affected snow at upper elevations, on surface hoar in some sheltered areas, on a melt-freeze crust below 1600 m, and on a sun crust on south-facing slopes. Recent southeast winds may have redistributed some of this new snow, creating wind slabs in leeward terrain.

In the south, the underlying snowpack is well consolidated. In the north, a melt-freeze crust from early December may be found 100 to 200 cm deep. Recent reports suggest that this layer is gaining strength and has been unreactive in recent weeks.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

It may be possible to trigger pockets of windslab at upper elevations from recent east to south wind. 

Aspects: North, North East, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2