Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Confidence
High - on Friday
Weather Forecast
FRIDAY: Trace to 5 cm of new snow by the morning then clearing throughout the day, moderate west wind, freezing level climbing to 1000 m with alpine high temperatures around -5 C.SATURDAY: Moderate snowfall with 15-25 cm throughout the day, strong southwest wind, freezing level up to 800 m with alpine high temperatures around -5 C.SUNDAY: Clearing and cooling with strong northeast wind and alpine high temperatures around -14 C.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported on Thursday (as of 4 pm). On Wednesday, a few small isolated size 1 storm slabs were reactive to skiers and few large (size 2-2.5) natural slab avalanches were reported in steep rocky terrain and lee features. Cornices were reactive to explosive triggers, some producing small slabs on the slopes below.Several large cornices have collapsed over the past week. One resulted in a fatal accident in the Callaghan area on Saturday. A snowmobiler was parked 7-10 m back from the edge of a corniced ridge when a large chuck broke off and took the rider down the slope. See here for a full report. A similar incident occurred nearby the same day, but the person only suffered minor injuries. A collapsing cornice also triggered a large slab (size 3) on a north-facing slope west of Pemberton on the weekend. Fragile cornices continue to be a concern in the region.
Snowpack Summary
10-20 cm of light snow sits above a variety of old surfaces, including scoured crusty surfaces on south-facing alpine slopes, a melt-freeze crust up to about 1900 m, and old wind slabs on a range of aspects at high elevations. The mid-January crust is now buried beneath 150-200 cm of settled snow, but a heavy trigger such as a cornice fall could potentially wake up this layer. The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-settled.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5