Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 8th, 2018 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Warming trend a welcome change. Increasing hazard for Ice Climbers in steep solar aspects. Start early, finish early!

Summary

Weather Forecast

Spring like warming trend with a distinct south westerly flow. Freezing levels rising to treeline elevations into the weekend. Trace to 10cm of snow overnight Thursday and clearing by Friday afternoon. Strong, gusting westerly winds in the Alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Facetting has weakened the snowpack in isolated areas in the forecast region. Melt freeze cycle BTL with moist surface snow on steeper, rocky solar aspects. The upper snowpack is 50 to 80 cm, over the seasonally persistent instability. Wind effect in open areas in the alpine and treeline elevations.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive assisted, solar induced, loose dry avalanches to sz 1.5 in BTL south and south-west aspects entraining the facets and running fast.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

A cold, facetting, and structurally weak slab up to 80cm thick overlies faceted crystals (well developed in shallow areas). Low elevations will present as a loose dry avalanche problem.

If triggered dry loose point releases can form deeper deposits in terrain traps.Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Late afternoon problem in steep, solar rocky terrain. Found to be entraining the surrounding, facetted snowpack and will build up volume quickly.

Avoid ice climbs exposed to steep rocky terrain on solar aspects during the middle of the day.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 9th, 2018 4:00PM