Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain

Wednesday night and Thursday: Another system arrives bringing 20-35cm of snow. The freezing level should start at around 1400m and lower to 1000m on Thursday. Winds are strong from the W-SW. Thursday afternoon should be a little drier before another system arrives overnight. Friday: 15-25cm of snow. Continued strong SW winds. Freezing level 1000-1200m. Saturday: Drier for the first half of the day as a brief ridge of high pressure builds, but should see some precipitation in the afternoon as another frontal system is on the way. Freezing level starting at 600-800m, rising with the warm front. Low confidence for Saturday.

Numerous Size 1-2 slab avalanches (both natural and human triggered) have been reported in the past 48 hours. There is one new report of a Size 2 accidentally triggered avalanche on Paul Ridge (Garibaldi Park) on Wednesday. Luckily no one was involved. Expect the size and likelihood of avalanches to increase through the forecast period.

25-50cm of snow fell last night bringing the total snowfall in the past week to 80-150cm. Wind slabs continue to grow in exposed NW-E facing slopes, probably as deep as 100cm in some areas. A weak rain crust is found below the new snow up to treeline elevations. This crust may sit on top of buried surface hoar and/or facets may persist 10-20cm below. One observer near Whistler reported whumpfing on a buried surface hoar layer in low-angle terrain below treeline. Watch this layer as it gets more load and a thick cohesive slab develops, particularly below treeline where the buried surface hoar would be especially large. A strong mid pack overlies basal facets that have also gained considerable strength. On average the snowpack is around 200cm deep near treeline.